Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026 (CCCR2026) confirms that the climate our communities and organizations must prepare for is no longer the climate of previous decades. For municipalities, businesses, universities and asset managers, the challenge is to understand what is changing—and turn that knowledge into useful decisions.
Three numbers that put the changes in perspective
- +2.0°C: observed warming across Canada from 1948 to 2023.
- +2.6°C: observed warming in northern Canada over the same period.
- Approximately +1°C: additional warming projected in the near term (2021–2040).
Source: Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026. The third figure is a projection, not an observation.
The latest Environment and Climate Change Canada temperature indicators, now extending through 2025, show a 2.3°C warming trend across Canada over 1948–2025. Warming varies significantly by season and region: it has been especially pronounced in winter and northern Canada. These differences highlight the importance of considering local and seasonal conditions when assessing climate risks.
What is new in this second edition?
Compared with the 2019 report, the new assessment draws on more recent observations, improved datasets and updated climate models. It addresses a broader range of topics and makes climate information more accessible to those planning adaptation measures.
Another important development is the inclusion of Indigenous science, including case studies from First Nations, Inuit and Métis communities. Knowledge rooted in specific places enriches our understanding of changes experienced locally. Using such knowledge requires respect for knowledge holders and Indigenous data sovereignty.
Five lessons for better climate risk management
1. The baseline climate has already changed
An average increase of 2.0°C across Canada over 75 years is more than a national statistic. Buildings, infrastructure and services may have been designed using climatic conditions that no longer adequately reflect today’s reality.
Action to take: review the climate assumptions behind plans, design standards and asset renewal projects, particularly for assets expected to remain in service for decades.
2. Near-term warming is expected, but long-term outcomes depend on emissions
Warming will continue in the near term, while its magnitude in the second half of the century will depend strongly on global greenhouse gas emissions. A single climate projection is therefore not appropriate for every decision.
Action to take: match climate time horizons to the useful life of investments and examine more than one plausible climate future. Infrastructure expected to operate until 2080 calls for a different assessment than an operational measure that can be implemented next year.
3. Extremes are changing, but each hazard needs careful assessment
The report confirms the intensification of extreme heat and projects increases in heavy precipitation. Flooding, however, can arise from different mechanisms: urban runoff, river flooding, snowmelt and ice jams require different analyses. Uncertainty also varies across hazards and geographic scales.
Action to take: identify the hazards that could genuinely disrupt your assets or activities instead of using national climate trends as a direct measure of local risk.
4. The water cycle is changing
More annual precipitation does not necessarily mean greater water availability. Evaporation, summer droughts, groundwater recharge, changing snow conditions and the concentration of rainfall in heavy events need to be assessed together.
Action to take: connect stormwater management, water availability, business continuity and infrastructure protection. A municipality or manufacturing facility can face both excess water during storms and shortages during dry periods.
5. Climate data create value when they inform a decision
A projection becomes useful when linked to a place, an asset, a service, a time horizon and a specific management question. The same climate indicator will not be equally relevant to a school, a stormwater network or a supply chain.
Action to take: connect the data to a climate risk assessment that accounts for exposure and vulnerability, then prioritize actions. For a deeper explanation, read Turning Climate Data into Adaptation Decisions.
Three questions to ask in your organization
- Do the data underlying our plans, design standards and investments reflect the climate our assets will experience?
- Do our priority risks account for the actual exposure and vulnerability of our sites, services, populations and supply chains?
- Are adaptation measures integrated into budgets, projects, asset management and routine decision-making?
If your data are outdated, begin by reviewing your assumptions. If risks are insufficiently documented, examine exposure and vulnerability in greater depth. If risks are known but rarely considered, focus on integrating them into decisions. A complete restart of an adaptation plan is not always needed. For a structured approach, see Climate Plan: Succeeding in Risk Assessment.
Which report chapters should you read first?
Chapter 8 — Changes in extremes. This chapter helps clarify trends and uncertainties relating to heat, heavy precipitation and other events that may affect people and assets.
Chapter 10 — Climate services and using climate information. It can help organizations choose suitable scenarios, time horizons, climate variables and geographic scales, and understand how projections can support planning.
Chapter 9, on the carbon cycle, also provides useful context for connecting decarbonization, nature-based solutions and the long-term resilience of their benefits.
Strengthening adaptation without starting over
CCCR2026 does not make existing adaptation plans obsolete. Instead, it offers an opportunity to revisit assumptions, update the indicators that matter most and validate priorities. Organizations just beginning can use this scientific foundation to build a phased approach.
CCG supports organizations with climate risk assessments and climate adaptation planning. For municipalities, these efforts can also be integrated into projects and investments, as discussed in The Climate Test: Integrating Climate Objectives into Municipal Decision-Making.
Municipalities can also explore our article on funding municipal climate adaptation. If you would like to review the relevance of updating your risk assessment or adaptation priorities, let’s discuss your needs.
The climate continues to change. Our decisions should change with it.