The Accelerating Local Climate Transition (ALCT) program, launched by the Government of Québec, supports RCMs (regional county municipalities) in developing climate plans.
(To learn more about this funding, see our article: Funding for Climate Plans)
One of the most common challenges encountered by climate plan project managers is the risk assessment step. Many find that the existing resources (guides, assessment grids) are not sufficient to carry out this step independently.
That’s why CCG developed a tailored training course to help project managers build the necessary skills.
The training focuses on Step 3 of the Ouranos guide, entitled “Climate Risk Assessment”, which outlines how to evaluate the probability and severity of climate-related impacts to determine the key risks that should be addressed.
👉 Consult the Ouranos guide (PDF)
The training is structured around the following three steps:
1. Identify potential impacts based on an exposure analysis
The first step is to conduct an exposure analysis – that is, to cross-reference current or future climate hazards (extreme rainfall, heat, drought, wildfires, etc.) with the territory’s physical and social characteristics. This intersection helps identify potential impacts of climate change.
Examples:
• An increase in extreme rainfall combined with an overburdened stormwater system can lead to frequent urban flooding.
• Heatwaves in a highly paved urban area may pose health risks for elderly populations.
2. Score system vulnerabilities based on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity
While this step is not mandatory under the ALCT program, we strongly recommend it. It allows for a better understanding of local realities and helps reduce subjectivity in the risk assessment.
We assess the vulnerability of affected systems or sectors based on:
• Sensitivity: the physical predisposition of an exposed element to be affected by climate conditions (e.g., the sensitivity of infrastructure, social groups, ecosystems);
• Adaptive capacity: the combination of strengths, knowledge, resources, and assets available in a community to respond and adjust to climate challenges.
A vulnerability score is assigned to each system-impact combination, in collaboration with local stakeholders (municipal departments, public health, civil security, etc.).
Examples:
• A critical building (hospital, fire station) located in a flood zone without protective measures is highly vulnerable.
• A well-maintained water distribution network with backup supply is less vulnerable to prolonged drought.
3. Analyze risk level: combining likelihood and consequences
The identified vulnerabilities are then converted into climate risks using the following equation:
Risk (R) = Likelihood (L) × Consequence (C)
- Likelihood refers to the probability that the impact will occur in the short, medium, or long term;
• Consequence refers to the severity of the impact on human, natural, economic, or territorial systems.
This step concludes with the prioritization of risks, referred to as “risk evaluation” in the Ouranos guide. This prioritization helps distinguish between the most critical issues and those that need monitoring. It is a key step in guiding resource allocation and building a coherent adaptation plan.
Risk assessment: a key step toward resilient communities
Climate risk assessment is a crucial phase in developing a climate plan. The training developed by CCG aims to equip project managers with a clear methodology, practical tools, and a deep understanding of this essential step.
By putting our expertise at the service of municipal actors, we aim not only to support the implementation of climate plans but also to contribute more broadly to building truly resilient communities in the face of future climate challenges.